A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
