Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
